Els Krimsky

Nestled between lush river valleys and arid deserts lies Pakistan, a country whose diverse geography defines the nation’s cultural, political, and economic landscapes. A stark difference from the hot coastlines in the south, the country’s northernmost region is studded with over 7200 glaciers spread out across three intersecting mountain ranges: The Himalayas, the Karakorum, and the Hindu Kush. These glaciers provide Pakistanis with the majority of their freshwater by slowly feeding into various river systems that travel throughout the country. Despite their importance, Pakistan’s glaciers have slowly started to cause panic for Pakistani and global citizens alike. Their resurgence due to rising temperatures is causing glacial lakes to form at a rapid rate, consequently increasing the occurrence of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). 

GLOFs have been naturally occurring in Pakistan for many years. However, the onset of climate change and its increasing severity has left the country in a vulnerable position, unable to adapt as quickly as these floods occur. The worst of the flood events hit Pakistan in June 2022, when a combination of heavier-than-normal monsoon rains combined with more frequent GLOFs devastated the region’s population and infrastructure, resulting in more than  1700 immediate deaths, damages costing upwards of $30 billion, and the beginning of a humanitarian crisis lasting over a year after the initial flooding. 

After the immediate harm ceased, Pakistan was left to confront an array of both new and pre existing crises that were worsened due to the floods. Pakistan’s economy, which was already struggling to adjust to COVID-19-related inflation, now had to address efforts related to relief and reconstruction. Infrastructure, schools, municipalities, and entire communities were wiped out and had to be rebuilt. These damages also resulted in another 1700 deaths caused by a mix of contaminated water and food insecurity. Similarly, waterborne diseases such as cholera, malaria, and dengue began to spread at faster rates. This ultimately further complicated relief efforts and worsened the fragile state of the 33 million people who were affected. With the help of foreign aid, Pakistan recovered but remains a vulnerable nation with thousands of glacial lakes still looming over the nation.

The 2022 floods mark a critical moment in climate change history, given that the number of GLOFs more than tripled in just one year. During a four-year period spanning from 2018 to 2021, fourteen GLOFs occurred in total. However, that number increased to 75 at the end of 2022, meaning 61 GLOFs occurred that year alone.¹ These floods can be attributed to an increased rate of glacial melting caused both global warming and air pollution.² It is commonly misunderstood that water directly from glacial melt is causing these floods, skipping an intermediate component that is critical to understanding these natural disasters. 

When glaciers melt and subsequently recede, they leave indentations in the Earth where they previously covered and slowly eroded. The water that melts away from the glacial body fills these craters, forming what are known as glacial lakes, which are dammed by either ice from other glaciers or the Earth itself. GLOFs occur when the dams fail, meaning water levels in the lakes exceed the height of the wall (either by more water or being displaced by falling glaciers) or when it physically changes and allows water to leave. As temperatures continue to rise and pollution remains unchecked, the occurrences of these floods increase as glacial lakes become fuller and more abundant. 

There is currently no data suggesting glaciers in Pakistan’s mountains will stop melting at such a rapid rate. Rather, climate scientists have predicted Pakistan will lose 75% of their ice by 2100 if they continue to recede at their current rate. As seen in the aftermath of the 2022 floods, this reality will have devastating impacts not just on Pakistan, but the entire world. An estimated fifteen million people worldwide are at risk of being directly affected by GLOFs, with two million, or approximately 13%, of those people being located in Pakistan. Economies will suffer, the spread of diseases will surge, and essential services will be unreachable. In Pakistan specifically, mountain villages directly downstream of glacial lakes already face disproportionately high levels of poverty compared to other areas of the country, putting them in an even more difficult position when time comes to respond. 

The disasters that have resulted from GLOFs and anticipation of more to come have caused an increase in climate-induced migration among Pakistanis. Residents of Pakistan’s mountain villages have been displaced to more southern regions of the country as well as across borders. Ultimately, contributing to the increasing number of the world’s climate refugees. Despite the impending floods, individuals and families who inhabit the villages and towns most at risk still find it difficult to leave. Many of those fleeing are leaving behind a place where their family has lived for centuries, as well as established tight-knit communities. However, some Pakistanis are in the opposite position; they want to leave but lack the resources to do so. Despite the clear need for a solution, Pakistan and other South Asian countries have yet to find one. 

Having been previously underserved or completely ignored by foreign aid, the increased urgency of glacial melting has drawn more attention from international relief organizations. Areas that faced the worst of the 2022 floods are now under the watch of the United Nation’s second Glacial Lake Outburst Flood project. Since 2017, support from GLOF II has funded sensors which measure rainfall and water discharge, weather stations, and speakers capable of communicating warnings in Pakistan’s mountain villages, as well as updated infrastructure that slows and disperses the movement of flood water. 

In March 2025, The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and China, Pakistan’s neighbor to the north, deployed a joint plan called the Tailored Intelligence for Actionable Early Warning Systems (TIAEWS) to upholster Pakistan’s current proactive and reactive responses to GLOFs. China’s involvement is essential to lessening the impact of GLOFs, given their production of black carbon and other pollutants has contributed significantly to the region’s melting glaciers. The TIAEWS project will target the northern region Gilgit-Baltistan and looks to address three key areas that will help Pakistan manage GLOFs: developing an integrated data management system for early warnings, strengthening community awareness and disaster preparedness, and improving governance and coordination for effective dissemination of critical warnings. This will in part look like establishing 70 automatic weather stations, 70 hydrometric stations, and 70 warning posts throughout the area.³ 

Pakistan’s struggle with glacial lake outburst floods brings attention to a broader, global struggle to combat the consequences of climate change. As glaciers continue to melt at alarming rates, the effects pose a critical threat not only to Pakistan’s most vulnerable communities but to international stability as a whole. While new initiatives like the TIAEWS and growing global partnerships offer temporary solutions, they are not substitutes for long-term, unified action against glacial melting. Without sustained international support and aggressive efforts to curb emissions and reduce pollutants, GLOFs will only grow more frequent and destructive. The story of Pakistan’s glaciers is a stark reminder that the climate crisis is no longer a distant concern; it’s already reshaping lives, landscapes, and nations.