megan woodward

What is CSTO?

The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is a regional military alliance between Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia (including Russian-occupied territory of Ukraine), and Tajikistan.  Although Ukraine is not part of the CSTO, Russia has annexed parts of eastern Ukraine, claiming them as Russian territory—an assertion not officially recognized by the CSTO or international community. Its current Secretary General is former Kazakh Prime Minister, Imangali Tasmagambetov, and its headquarters are situated in Moscow, Russia.

After the fall of the Soviet Union, the then Soviet Armed Forces turned into the United Armed Forces of the Commonwealth of Independent States.  Once individual states re-established themselves, their own armed forces took over and some countries left the alliance.  In 2002, the alliance was formally restructured and renamed to the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

CSTO is very similar to NATO in that aggression toward one signatory state would be perceived as aggression against all of the CSTO states.  However, the use of unnecessary military force is discouraged.  Furthermore, member states are not allowed to join other military alliances.  It often finds itself in opposition with the GUAM alliance (Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and Moldova).

The CSTO alliance encompasses multiple aspects of defense, including annual military exercises, operational procedures, peacekeeping, and the Collective Rapid Reaction Force (KSOR).  CSTO also holds a Parliamentary Assembly and presidency to approve of any actions by any of the member states.  Included in these assemblies is the peacekeeping force, which is often deployed in high-conflict areas.  In addition, KSOR teams collectively work across states to handle high-risk situations dealing with terrorism, transnational crime, drug trafficking, and natural disaster management.

Recent Updates

Russia invaded Ukraine in February of 2022.  In the 3 years since then, there has not been official CSTO involvement in the matter.  Its fellow member states have made statements on their individual opinions, but the CSTO has not collectively come out to support Russia or Ukraine.  However, Russia’s invasion has not come without reactions from its fellow CSTO members.

Kazakhstan, Russia’s neighbor and close ally, has expressed disapproval of the invasion⁵ and refuses to recognize pro-Russian separatist states, such as the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics.  

When Russia failed to support Armenia⁶ during its conflict with Azerbaijan, Armenia reconsidered its CSTO membership.  Russia was then busy in Ukraine and did not send aid to Armenia even though Russia was expected to under mutual aggression pacts.  Armenia also condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  Armenia froze its participation in the CSTO and promised to withdraw altogether at a later date (unspecified).⁷

Belarus also expressed uncertainty of CSTO’s future, especially if Russia loses the war against Ukraine (“Collective Security Treaty Organization”).⁸

Looking Forward

Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine, despite international warnings, has revealed it to be an unpredictable (and potentially dangerous) ally  Many CSTO states have distanced themselves from Russia, with Armenia going as far as to pull out of CSTO.  At this moment, a complete dissolution of the CSTO is unlikely since member states are heavily reliant on each other economically, particularly so on Russia.  For example, Kazakhstan’s currency, the tenge, lost 20% of its value since the beginning of the Russian-Ukraine War, leading to high inflation rates.  Additionally, the close geographic proximity of many CSTO member states to Russia makes them more vulnerable to potential aggression. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine showed a willingness to ignore international norms, which has made nearby countries like Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan feel more exposed. As a result, even if they’re frustrated with Russia, their location and security concerns make it hard for them to fully leave the alliance.

As the war continues, Russia’s allies are steadily losing confidence in the declining world power. The future remains uncertain—not just for Russia, but for the entire CSTO alliance. Many countries, including CSTO members, are actively working to diversify their economies and reduce their reliance on Russia’s unstable economic and political systems. This trend is likely to continue, regardless of the war’s outcome. A Russian victory might demonstrate military capability, but it won’t erase Russia’s reputation for unpredictability and disregard for international norms. Rebuilding trust will require far more than winning a war; it would take long-term diplomatic efforts, transparency, economic reform, and a consistent commitment to cooperative international behavior—none of which seem likely under the current regime.

On the other hand, a Russian defeat could signal more than just military failure. It may trigger internal political unrest, expose deep economic weaknesses, and leave Russia vulnerable to both domestic dissent and international retribution. If Putin were to step down in the aftermath, the resulting power vacuum could lead to a period of instability—marked by infighting among political elites, uncertainty about succession, and the potential rise of nationalist or extremist factions. Such instability would shake the confidence of CSTO members even further, making continued alignment with Russia a strategic liability rather than a benefit.

While the CSTO is unlikely to dissolve outright in the near future, its cohesion is under serious threat. A Ukrainian victory could mark the end of Russian dominance in the Eurasian region, forcing CSTO members to reassess their strategic loyalties. Russia, already deeply entangled in the conflict, has little room to maneuver and must now focus on minimizing both international backlash and domestic instability. For other CSTO states, continued economic and political distancing from Russia may be the safest path forward. Three years into the war, the outcome remains uncertain—but what is certain is that Russia’s precarious position could reshape not just the CSTO, but the broader regional balance and global order.